Conservation Biology
Contributed Paper

Connectivity Planning to Address Climate Change

TRISTAN A. NUÑEZ,

Corresponding Author

TRISTAN A. NUÑEZ

School of Environmental and Forest Sciences, University of Washington, Seattle, WA, 98115 U.S.A.

Department of Environmental Science, Management, and Policy, University of California, Berkeley, Berkeley, CA, 94720 U.S.A.

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JOSHUA J. LAWLER,

JOSHUA J. LAWLER

School of Environmental and Forest Sciences, University of Washington, Seattle, WA, 98115 U.S.A.

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BRAD H. MCRAE,

BRAD H. MCRAE

The Nature Conservancy, 1917 1st Avenue, Seattle, WA, 98101 U.S.A.

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D. JOHN PIERCE,

D. JOHN PIERCE

Washington Department of Fish and Wildlife, Olympia, WA, 98501 U.S.A.

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MEADE B. KROSBY,

MEADE B. KROSBY

Department of Biology, University of Washington, Seattle, WA, 98115 U.S.A.

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DARREN M. KAVANAGH,

DARREN M. KAVANAGH

The Nature Conservancy, 1917 1st Avenue, Seattle, WA, 98101 U.S.A.

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PETER H. SINGLETON,

PETER H. SINGLETON

USDA Forest Service, Pacific Northwest Research Station, 1133 N. Western Avenue, Wenatchee, WA, 98801 U.S.A.

School of Environmental and Forest Sciences, University of Washington, Seattle, WA, 98115 U.S.A.

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JOSHUA J. TEWKSBURY,

JOSHUA J. TEWKSBURY

Department of Biology, University of Washington, Seattle, WA, 98115 U.S.A.

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First published: 14 February 2013
Citations: 109
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Abstract

en

As the climate changes, human land use may impede species from tracking areas with suitable climates. Maintaining connectivity between areas of different temperatures could allow organisms to move along temperature gradients and allow species to continue to occupy the same temperature space as the climate warms. We used a coarse-filter approach to identify broad corridors for movement between areas where human influence is low while simultaneously routing the corridors along present-day spatial gradients of temperature. We modified a cost–distance algorithm to model these corridors and tested the model with data on current land-use and climate patterns in the Pacific Northwest of the United States. The resulting maps identified a network of patches and corridors across which species may move as climates change. The corridors are likely to be robust to uncertainty in the magnitude and direction of future climate change because they are derived from gradients and land-use patterns. The assumptions we applied in our model simplified the stability of temperature gradients and species responses to climate change and land use, but the model is flexible enough to be tailored to specific regions by incorporating other climate variables or movement costs. When used at appropriate resolutions, our approach may be of value to local, regional, and continental conservation initiatives seeking to promote species movements in a changing climate.

Planificación de Conectividad para Atender el Cambio Climático

Resumen

es

A medida que cambia el clima, el uso de suelo por humanos puede impedir que las especies encuentren áreas con climas adecuados. El mantenimiento de la conectividad entre áreas con temperaturas diferentes permitiría que los organismos se muevan a lo largo de gradientes de temperatura y permitiría que las especies continúen ocupando el mismo espacio de temperatura a medida que el clima cambia. Utilizamos un método de grano grueso para identificar corredores para el movimiento entre áreas con baja influencia humana y simultáneamente trazando los corredores a lo largo de gradientes de temperatura actuales. Modificamos un algoritmo de costo–distancia para modelar estos corredores y probamos el modelo con datos sobre el uso de suelo y patrones climáticos actuales en el Noroeste de Estados Unidos. Los mapas resultantes identificaron una red de parches y corredores en los que las especies se pueden mover a medida que el clima cambia. Es posible que los corredores sean robustos a la incertidumbre en la magnitud y dirección del cambio climático futuro porque están derivados de gradientes y patrones de uso de suelo. Los supuestos que aplicamos en nuestro modelo simplificaron la estabilidad de los gradientes de temperatura y las respuestas de las especies al cambio climático y uso de suelo, pero el modelo es lo suficientemente flexible para ser adaptado a regiones específicas mediante la incorporación de otras variables climáticas o costos de movimiento. Cuando se utiliza en resoluciones apropiadas, nuestro método puede ser valioso para iniciativas de conservación locales, regionales y continentales que buscan promover el movimiento de especies en un clima cambiante.